Friday, March 27, 2009
〈奥巴马胜选演说·文言版〉(修订版) 译者:东东枪
芝城父老,别来无恙!
If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible, who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.
余尝闻世人有疑,不知当今美利坚凡事皆可成就耶?开国先贤之志犹岿然于世耶?民主之伟力不减于昔年耶?凡此诸疑,今夕当焕然冰释矣。
It’s the answer told by lines that stretched around schools and churches in numbers this nation has never seen, by people who waited three hours and four hours, many for the first time in their lives, because they believed that this time must be different, that their voices could be that difference.
诸疑之释,皆蒙美利坚民众之协力——学塾祠庙之外,市井乡野之间,万千父老焦心若焚,苦待竟日,愿献一票之力。此景此情,前所未见!其中,平生未尝涉国事者,数亦甚夥,乃今有此义举,皆因一念不衰——今夫天下,非同既往,愿发吁天之声,必成动地之势。
It’s the answer spoken by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat and Republican, black, white, Hispanic, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, disabled and not disabled. Americans who sent a message to the world that we have never been just a collection of individuals or a collection of red states and blue states. We are, and always will be, the United States of America.
诸疑之释,皆仰吾国万万同胞之齐心——何言贫富老幼之差,党社宗族之异,遑论发肤肌体之别,志趣爱恶之分。吾国既以“合众”为名,吾侪当更无疏离之意,红蓝二党并肩而立,数十邦州挽手相合,无分尔吾,共肇一家也。
It’s the answer that led those who’ve been told for so long by so many to be cynical and fearful and doubtful about what we can achieve to put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day. It’s been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this date in this election at this defining moment, change has come to America.
诸疑既释,则冷彻者可得激情,忧惧者可得勇气,犹疑者可得笃定。平生襟抱,虽屡遭辱没,然值此风云之际,鼎新革故,当仁不让,倾力而动乾坤者,吾侪之外,更何人哉!俟望诚久,其志弥坚。幸天地明察,乃有今日,乃有此刻,乃有此一选举——吾邦之大变革,乃自兹而始!
A little bit earlier this evening, I received an extraordinarily gracious call from Sen. McCain. Sen. McCain fought long and hard in this campaign. And he’s fought even longer and harder for the country that he loves. He has endured sacrifices for America that most of us cannot begin to imagine. We are better off for the service rendered by this brave and selfless leader. I congratulate him; I congratulate Gov. Palin for all that they’ve achieved. And I look forward to working with them to renew this nation’s promise in the months ahead.
顷接参议员麦君凯恩电,虽未得晤,幸有一谈,其言谆谆,其意诚诚,鄙人感佩甚矣。选战期内,麦君劳碌几重,奔波几许,皆为国家计。夙夜劬心,诸般求索,非余所能及。其于国于民之惊人牺牲,亦诚非庸庸如吾辈者所可想见。以麦君之胆魄襟怀,能为吾邦所用,实国家之幸,万民之幸也。前途漫漫,国事未定,余所盼切由衷者,唯共麦凯恩君、佩林君,及诸贤士比肩,会吾等之绵力,成吾邦之大业。
I want to thank my partner in this journey, a man who campaigned from his heart, and spoke for the men and women he grew up with on the streets of Scranton and rode with on the train home to Delaware, the vice president-elect of the United States, Joe Biden.
乔君拜登,余所铭感至深者也。竞选之业,艰辛不足与外人道,幸得乔君襄助,乃竟其功。乔君其人,素言恳辞切,意笃情真,盖斯克兰顿乡邻之提命,特拉华州父老之晤教,俱萦怀在心,未尝忘却也。余蒙不弃,叨居总统之位,愿以天下相累,乔君慨然相允,幸何如之!
And I would not be standing here tonight without the unyielding support of my best friend for the last 16 years, the rock of our family, the love of my life, the nation’s next first lady Michelle Obama.
拙荆罗氏,鸿案相庄凡一十六载,既为爱侣,更称挚友,既是吾阖家之基石,又系余毕生之至爱。鄙人尝自忖度,倘无贤妻若此,今朝阔论于斯者,不知何人矣!
Sasha and Malia I love you both more than you can imagine. And you have earned the new puppy that’s coming with us to the new White House.
小女萨沙、玛丽,余素深喜之。余尝言,愿购小犬一头相赠,待阖家乔迁总统府邸之日,相携同进吾宅。今当胜负已出,既有一诺在前,必自践行不欺也。
And while she’s no longer with us, I know my grandmother’s watching, along with the family that made me who I am. I miss them tonight. I know that my debt to them is beyond measure.
外祖母大人虽已仙逝,料必有灵在天,俯察人寰,定颔首开颜矣。吾奥巴马氏列祖列宗,亦必如是。今日今时,鄙人追思之心,乌鸟之情,曷其有极!唯生死陌路,仙凡永隔,虽怀反哺之心,而无答报之门也!
To my sister Maya, my sister Alma, all my other brothers and sisters, thank you so much for all the support that you’ve given me. I am grateful to them.
至若玛雅、艾玛二姊妹并吾家诸同胞,所惠余者,更不胜言,久蒙调护,此当拜谢。
And to my campaign manager, David Plouffe, the unsung hero of this campaign, who built the best - the best political campaign, I think, in the history of the United States of America. To my chief strategist David Axelrod who’s been a partner with me every step of the way. To the best campaign team ever assembled in the history of politics, you made this happen, and I am forever grateful for what you’ve sacrificed to get it done.
大卫·普劳夫君,大卫·阿克塞罗德君,一为鄙人竞选事务之经理,一为鄙人国事韬略之智囊。余尝自喟叹,左右运筹之士,皆亘古未见之贤才。普阿二君,则更此中翘楚。区区不才,有何德能,可得数公鼎力襄助若此?当此功成之际,感荷之心,亦自拳拳。
But above all, I will never forget who this victory truly belongs to. It belongs to you. It belongs to you.
至于鄙人铭之肺腑,寤寐不敢忘怀者,诚诸位也。盖今日鄙人之胜绩,实诸位之胜绩,鄙人之荣光,实诸位之荣光!
I was never the likeliest candidate for this office. We didn’t start with much money or many endorsements. Our campaign was not hatched in the halls of Washington. It began in the backyards of Des Moines and the living rooms of Concord and the front porches of Charleston. It was built by working men and women who dug into what little savings they had to give $5 and $10 and $20 to the cause.
余素朴陋,虽有参选之心,并无必胜之志。谋事之初,银资乏匮,从者寥寥;起事之地,皆蔽寓荒斋,不在高阁;成事之基,无非寻常百姓,升斗之献。
It grew strength from the young people who rejected the myth of their generation’s apathy who left their homes and their families for jobs that offered little pay and less sleep. It drew strength from the not-so-young people who braved the bitter cold and scorching heat to knock on doors of perfect strangers, and from the millions of Americans who volunteered and organized and proved that more than two centuries later a government of the people, by the people, and for the people has not perished from the Earth. This is your victory.
幸得一众热血青年,抛其家,别其室,不辞其苦,不计其酬,矻矻于此,方得今日之胜。“国中青年爱国之心已泯”之谬论,今可休矣!幸有壮志未已之诸前辈,无惧寒暑,行走奔波,劝说民众,乃竟今日之功。今日之胜,诚数百万美利坚民众之胜也。察其意,皆属踊跃为国,观其行,处处谨严有序,足堪告慰二百年前开国之先贤——民有、民治、民享之政体,未尝动摇也!嗟夫!此实诸位之功也!
And I know you didn’t do this just to win an election. And I know you didn’t do it for me.You did it because you understand the enormity of the task that lies ahead. For even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime - two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century.
余知诸君之意非在此一选战,亦非在鄙人一身。盖瞻前路之艰辛,而益知此任不可轻许也。虽今夕欢贺于此,而明朝酒醒,大患仍自当前。两地烽烟熊熊而起,四海之内纷纷而乱,金融业界惶惶而危,皆不容有怠。
Even as we stand here tonight, we know there are brave Americans waking up in the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan to risk their lives for us.There are mothers and fathers who will lie awake after the children fall asleep and wonder how they’ll make the mortgage or pay their doctors’ bills or save enough for their child’s college education. There’s new energy to harness, new jobs to be created, new schools to build, and threats to meet, alliances to repair.
是夜,歌吹饮宴之声不绝于耳,而异邦大漠群山中,吾国大好青年,兀自苦戍边塞,惝恍竟夜,性命尚未得安。吾国千万庶民,为人父母者,兀自惴惴难眠,所忧者,乃房宅所贷,病患之费,抚育之资也。至若吾国能源之耗,百业之兴,庠序之教,攻伐之术,怀远之道,亦皆吾等忡忡挂怀者也。
The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even in one term. But, America, I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you, we as a people will get there.
渺渺乎其远,如不可达;危危乎其高,若不可攀。伟业宏图,可一蹴而就耶?余不揣愚钝,愿以四载相期,付诸此业,胜算何如虽不可知,然昂扬必胜之奇志,成就伟业之壮怀,平生未之有也。君子一诺,其重何如,此地今夕,愿斗胆发一狂言——吾辈既在,其事必成!
There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who won’t agree with every decision or policy I make as president. And we know the government can’t solve every problem. But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you, especially when we disagree. And, above all, I will ask you to join in the work of remaking this nation, the only way it’s been done in America for 221 years - block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand.
逶迤坎坷,份内之事。异见争端,料必有之。国中之政府,亦非全知全能者。余所秉承不移者,唯忠信耳。倘有危难于前,必无欺瞒于世。诸君言论臧否,纵与余意相左,必当洗耳以聆。于此之外,更当恳请诸君,同心戮力,共继吾国既肇二百二十一年之大统,汇涓滴之力,而成万世之业。
What began 21 months ago in the depths of winter cannot end on this autumn night. This victory alone is not the change we seek. It is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were. It can’t happen without you, without a new spirit of service, a new spirit of sacrifice.
前岁冬日,余立志于斯,投身此业,屈指算来,倏然近二载矣。当此秋夜,追思反省,更生惕厉。选战之胜,无非一役之功,吾辈矢志所求者,非在乎此。此役之胜,亦无非革世变时之一大好良机耳。设若止步于斯,垂手而待,或无诸君倾力相援,则壮志丰功,无非泡影,诸般梦想,终归虚妄。
So let us summon a new spirit of patriotism, of responsibility, where each of us resolves to pitch in and work harder and look after not only ourselves but each other. Let us remember that, if this financial crisis taught us anything, it’s that we cannot have a thriving Wall Street while Main Street suffers. In this country, we rise or fall as one nation, as one people.
爱国之心,报国之念,吾人固有之。今吾辈各竭其力,各尽其命,各执己业之外,益当守望相助,而更期普世之荣。当是时也,金融浩劫,四海凶危,鉴之查之,其理自明——寻常商贾既损,金融巨擘焉得独全乎?由是可知,邦域之内,吾辈荣辱休戚,皆相与共矣!
Let’s resist the temptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettiness and immaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long. Let’s remember that it was a man from this state who first carried the banner of the Republican Party to the White House, a party founded on the values of self-reliance and individual liberty and national unity. Those are values that we all share. And while the Democratic Party has won a great victory tonight, we do so with a measure of humility and determination to heal the divides that have held back our progress.
党争纷纭,锱铢必较,轻狂懵懂,皆腐坏人心惑乱政局之弊也,其来已久,余今愿与诸君协力,共灭除之。昔年曾有此郡先贤,首执共和党之帜,而掌总统府之权。自强独立,自由统一等信念,皆彼党之所倡,亦吾辈之所宗。今岁选战,吾民主党人幸有一胜,然谦恭和合之心未尝少减。
As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, we are not enemies but friends. Though passion may have strained, it must not break our bonds of affection. And to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn, I may not have won your vote tonight, but I hear your voices. I need your help. And I will be your president, too.
余素信服者,乃山河破碎之际,总统林肯氏之言——“既属同胞,终不为敌。虽弩张剑拔,而血脉未尝断,情义不少减。”固然,仍有四方志士,不为鄙人所动,另有高明之选。虽悭一票之缘,然诸君谠论,余亦声声在耳,字字在心。来日方长,大雅诸君,幸垂教焉!余虽忝列总统之位,必不另眼以待也。
And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces, to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of the world, our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared, and a new dawn of American leadership is at hand.
寰宇民众,散居四海,虽各安其命,而兴衰安危相系,今吾一邦之重兴既见锋芒,则天下之峥嵘必不远矣!
To those - to those who would tear the world down: We will defeat you. To those who seek peace and security: We support you. And to all those who have wondered if America’s beacon still burns as bright: Tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity and unyielding hope.
至若如虺如蛇,与世为敌者,吾邦猛志常在,彼等必取灭亡。而温良恭俭,久慕大同者,吾辈则当倾力以助,鼎力相援。犹疑未定,于吾邦之伟力未之信者,吾侪愿以今日盛况以告之——美利坚之所谓“美”者,非刀兵之强,金银之众,实民主、自由、机遇、梦想之美也!
That’s the true genius of America: that America can change. Our union can be perfected. What we’ve already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.
天自有道,地自有德,恩赋吾邦无上异禀。无他,达时知变而已矣。美利坚隆替不衰,合众国日趋至善。以过往先贤之伟绩,助吾侪今日之雄心,开子孙万世之辉光!
This election had many firsts and many stories that will be told for generations. But one that’s on my mind tonight’s about a woman who cast her ballot in Atlanta. She’s a lot like the millions of others who stood in line to make their voice heard in this election except for one thing: Ann Nixon Cooper is 106 years old.
今岁选战,多开亘古之先,屡传千秋佳话。感我至深者,亚特兰大老妪安•尼克松·库帕也——库氏一票,自与数百万美利坚民众之选票无异,其所以称奇者,在其百岁高龄有奇也。
She was born just a generation past slavery; a time when there were no cars on the road or planes in the sky; when someone like her couldn’t vote for two reasons - because she was a woman and because of the color of her skin.
当其父辈之时,天道不彰,黑人为奴。库氏其生也不逢时,汽车尚不行于道,飞机犹未起于空,库氏既属黑人,又系妇道,票选一事,不得问焉。
And tonight, I think about all that she’s seen throughout her century in America - the heartache and the hope; the struggle and the progress; the times we were told that we can’t, and the people who pressed on with that American creed: Yes we can.
今夕此地,回溯库氏百岁之涯,但见吾邦先贤屡败屡战,且退且进,悲欣交集,甘苦杂陈。幸而正道存焉,壮志存焉,曰:吾辈既在,无所不能。
At a time when women’s voices were silenced and their hopes dismissed, she lived to see them stand up and speak out and reach for the ballot. Yes we can.
万马齐喑,其事堪哀,吾邦女界怒而起,愤而争,苦战不歇,历数十载。幸哉库氏,以百岁之高龄,终得亲见女流自立于世,重获天赋之权–吾辈既在,无所不能!
When there was despair in the dust bowl and depression across the land, she saw a nation conquer fear itself with a New Deal, new jobs, a new sense of common purpose. Yes we can.
当其壮岁,库氏曾见黄埃蔽日,百业萧条。举国悲鸣之际,吾美利坚出旷世之新政,挽狂澜于既倒,扶大厦之将倾,退畏惧之心,扶奋勇之志,终至人各有位,民心乃安——吾辈既在,无所不能!
When the bombs fell on our harbor and tyranny threatened the world, she was there to witness a generation rise to greatness and a democracy was saved. Yes we can.
当吾国良港遭袭,天下桀纣当道,暴政肆虐之时,库氏曾见豪杰群起,民主不亡——吾辈既在,无所不能!
She was there for the buses in Montgomery, the hoses in Birmingham, a bridge in Selma, and a preacher from Atlanta who told a people that “We Shall Overcome.” Yes we can.
峥嵘岁月,民权勃兴,蒙哥马利公车罢辍,伯明翰城黑人群起,塞尔玛城血雨腥风,库氏般般曾历。更尝闻亚特兰大城大贤马丁·路德·金氏振臂登高之呼——“吾等必胜!”诚哉斯言!吾辈既在,无所不能!
A man touched down on the moon, a wall came down in Berlin, a world was connected by our own science and imagination. And this year, in this election, she touched her finger to a screen, and cast her vote, because after 106 years in America, through the best of times and the darkest of hours, she knows how America can change. Yes we can.
俟科学昌明于世,创想通贯一时,既登广寒之阙,又溃柏林之垣。洋洋乎!有百年如是,乃见今岁选战中,库氏之一票。浩浩乎!百有六载交锋更迭,方得美利坚今日之变革——吾辈既在,无所不能!
America, we have come so far. We have seen so much. But there is so much more to do. So tonight, let us ask ourselves - if our children should live to see the next century; if my daughters should be so lucky to live as long as Ann Nixon Cooper, what change will they see? What progress will we have made?
陵谷变迁,俱往矣!追昔抚今,敢不勉哉!再俟百年光阴,倘吾等后辈儿孙,亦有得享高寿如库氏者,复可见何等之世界?吾侪今日之功,他年可得而见之乎?
This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment. This is our time, to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth, that, out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope. And where we are met with cynicism and doubts and those who tell us that we can’t, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people: Yes, we can.
所谓时运天命,莫过于此 ——当为吾邦万民造安身立命之业,为吾辈儿孙启各展雄才之门,为寰宇各国创太平靖晏之世,为吾等壮志赋千秋不灭之元神。吾邦立国之本,必将光耀于天下——万千同胞,当如一人,一息尚存,壮怀不已!纵有世人疑焉,吾辈亦当以千秋不易之训共答之曰:吾辈既在,无所不能!
Thank you. God bless you. And may God bless the United States of America.
拜谢诸君!愿天佑吾民,天佑吾邦!
[完]
译者注:
1. 本篇中的英文原文系奥巴马(Barack Hussein Obama II)当选美国总统后于2008年11月4日晚在芝加哥发表的获胜演说。
2. 文言译本只是游戏之作,并非严谨的翻译。因此,很多语句、段落有基于原文的发挥、演绎,乃至各种添油加醋。
3. 译文采用浅近的文言体,偶有白话间杂。一些辞句语气有意戏仿民国时军政要人的演说、通电之类。
4. 个别词句有意”歪译”了一下,如”麦君凯恩”、”乔君拜登”等混淆姓、名的称谓。
5. 文中提到的”拙荆罗氏”是指奥巴马之妻Michelle Obama。因Michelle Obama原姓Robinson,故此处译为”罗氏”。
Thursday, March 26, 2009
"Peripheral care should be the central concern"
"Peripheral care should be the central concern"
By George Soros
Monday, March 23, 2009
The forthcoming Group of 20 meeting is a make-or-break event. Unless it comes up with practical measures to support the less developed countries, which are even more vulnerable than the developed ones, markets are going to suffer another sinking spell just as they did last month when Tim Geithner, Treasury secretary, failed to produce practical measures to recapitalise the US banking system.
This crisis is different from all the others since the end of the second world war. Previously, the authorities got their act together and prevented the financial system from collapsing. This time, after the failure of Lehman Brothers last September, the system broke down and was put on artificial life support. Among other measures, both Europe and the US in effect guaranteed that no other important financial institution would be allowed to fail.
This necessary step had unintended adverse consequences: many other countries, from eastern Europe to Latin America, Africa and south-east Asia, could not offer similar guarantees. As a result, capital fled from the periphery to the centre. The flight was abetted by national financial authorities at the centre who encouraged banks to repatriate their capital. In the periphery countries, currencies fell, interest rates rose and credit default swap rates soared. When history is written, it will be recorded that - in contrast to the Great Depression - protectionism first prevailed in finance rather than trade.
Institutions such as the International Monetary Fund face a novel task: to protect the periphery countries from a storm created in the developed world. Global institutions are used to dealing with governments; now they must deal with the collapse of the private sector. If they fail to do so, the periphery economies will suffer even more than those at the centre, because they are poorer and more dependent on commodities than the developed world. They also face $1,440bn (€1,060bn, £994bn) of bank loans coming due in 2009. These loans cannot be rolled over without international aid.
Gordon Brown, the UK prime minister, recognised the problem and designated the G20 meeting to address it. Yet profound attitudinal differences have surfaced, particularly between the US and Germany. The US has recognised that the collapse of credit in the private sector can be reversed only by using the credit of the state to the full. Germany, traumatised by the memory of hyperinflation in the 1920s, is reluctant to sow the seeds of future inflation by incurring too much debt. Both positions are firmly held. The controversy threatens to disrupt the meeting.
Yet it should be possible to find common ground. Instead of setting a universal target of 2 per cent of gross domestic product for stimulus packages, it is enough to agree that the periphery countries need aid to protect their financial systems. This is in the common interest. If the periphery economies are allowed to collapse, the developed countries will also be hurt.
As things stand, the G20 meeting will produce some concrete results: the resources of the IMF are likely to be doubled, mainly by using the mechanism of the "new arrangements to borrow", which can be activated without resolving the vexed question of reapportioning voting rights.
This will be sufficient to enable the IMF to help specific countries at risk but it will not provide a systemic solution for the less developed countries. Such a solution is readily available in the form of special drawing rights. SDRs are complex but they boil down to the international creation of money. Countries that can create their own money do not need them but periphery countries do. The rich countries should therefore lend their allocations to the nations in need.
Recipient countries would pay the IMF interest at a very low rate, equivalent to the composite average treasury bill rate of all convertible currencies. They would have free use of their own allocations but would be supervised in how the borrowed allocations were used to ensure they were well spent.
In addition to the one-time increase in the IMF's resources, there ought to be a big annual issue of SDRs, of say $250bn, as long as the recession lasts. It is too late to use the April 2 G20 meeting to agree this, but if it were raised by President Barack Obama and endorsed by others, this would be sufficient to give heart to the markets and turn the meeting into a resounding success.
The writer is chairman of Soros Fund Management and author of the forthcoming The Crash of 2008 (PublicAffairs 2009)
WALL STREET JOURNAL
One Way to Stop Bear Raids
Credit default swaps need much stricter regulation.
By George Soros
Tuesday, March 24th, 2009
In all the uproar over AIG, the most important lesson has been ignored. AIG failed because it sold large amounts of credit default swaps (CDS) without properly offsetting or covering their positions. What we must take away from this is that CDS are toxic instruments whose use ought to be strictly regulated: Only those who own the underlying bonds ought to be allowed to buy them. Instituting this rule would tame a destructive force and cut the price of the swaps. It would also save the U.S. Treasury a lot of money by reducing the loss on AIG's outstanding positions without abrogating any contracts.
CDS came into existence as a way of providing insurance on bonds against default. Since they are tradable instruments, they became bear-market warrants for speculating on deteriorating conditions in a company or country. What makes them toxic is that such speculation can be self-validating.
Up until the crash of 2008, the prevailing view -- called the efficient market hypothesis -- was that the prices of financial instruments accurately reflect all the available information (i.e. the underlying reality). But this is not true. Financial markets don't deal with the current reality, but with the future -- a matter of anticipation, not knowledge. Thus, we must understand financial markets through a new paradigm which recognizes that they always provide a biased view of the future, and that the distortion of prices in financial markets may affect the underlying reality that those prices are supposed to reflect. (I call this feedback mechanism "reflexivity.")
With the help of this new paradigm, the poisonous nature of CDS can be demonstrated in a three-step argument. The first step is to acknowledge that being long and selling short in the stock market has an asymmetric risk/reward profile. Losing on a long position reduces one's risk exposure, while losing on a short position increases it. As a result, one can be more patient being long and wrong than being short and wrong. This asymmetry discourages short-selling.
The second step is to recognize that the CDS market offers a convenient way of shorting bonds, but the risk/reward asymmetry works in the opposite way. Going short on bonds by buying a CDS contract carries limited risk but almost unlimited profit potential. By contrast, selling CDS offers limited profits but practically unlimited risks. This asymmetry encourages speculating on the short side, which in turn exerts a downward pressure on the underlying bonds. The negative effect is reinforced by the fact that CDS are tradable and therefore tend to be priced as warrants, which can be sold at anytime, not as options, which would require an actual default to be cashed in. People buy them not because they expect an eventual default, but because they expect the CDS to appreciate in response to adverse developments.
AIG thought it was selling insurance on bonds, and as such, they considered CDS outrageously overpriced. In fact, it was selling bear-market warrants and it severely underestimated the risk.
The third step is to recognize reflexivity, which means that the mispricing of financial instruments can affect the fundamentals that market prices are supposed to reflect. Nowhere is this phenomenon more pronounced than in the case of financial institutions, whose ability to do business is so dependent on trust. A decline in their share and bond prices can increase their financing costs. That means that bear raids on financial institutions can be self-validating.
Taking these three considerations together, it's clear that AIG, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and others were destroyed by bear raids in which the shorting of stocks and buying CDS mutually amplified and reinforced each other. The unlimited shorting of stocks was made possible by the abolition of the uptick rule, which would have hindered bear raids by allowing short selling only when prices were rising. The unlimited shorting of bonds was facilitated by the CDS market. The two made a lethal combination. And AIG failed to understand this.
Many argue now that CDS ought to be traded on regulated exchanges. I believe that they are toxic and should only be allowed to be used by those who own the bonds, not by others who want to speculate against countries or companies. Under this rule -- which would require international agreement and federal legislation -- the buying pressure on CDS would greatly diminish, and all outstanding CDS would drop in price. As a collateral benefit, the U.S. Treasury would save a great deal of money on its exposure to AIG.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Sunday, March 15, 2009
美国发生内战?
费尔南德·布罗代尔中心
纽约州宾汉顿大学,美国
http://fbc.binghamton.edu/commentr.htm
伊曼纽尔·沃勒斯坦
(路爱国 译)
评论 第253号
美国发生内战?
我们正在习惯于各种禁忌被打破的现象。世界媒体都在讨论银行“国有化”是否是个好主意。不是别人,正是艾伦·格林斯潘这位纯市场资本主义的超级自由主义信徒艾茵·兰德[Ayn Rand]的门生最近谈到,每隔一百年我们必须把银行国有化,而目前或许正是这样的时刻。保守的共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆[Lindsay Graham]同意他的看法。左翼凯恩斯主义者艾伦·布林德[Alan Blinder]讨论了这个观点的利弊。尽管他认为弊大于利,但他仍愿在《纽约时报》上撰文以期引起知识界的进一步探讨。
听到这些极端保守的名士们提出国有化建议后,我们现在又听到有人认真讨论美国发生内战的可能性。反共意识形态的使徒、卡特总统的国家安全顾问兹比格纽·布热津斯基
布热津斯基说,他担心出事,因为可能会有“千百万失业者面临可怕的困境”,这些人已经认识到,“巨大财富转向极少数人的这种现象在美国是史无前例的。”
他提醒听众说,1907年发生大规模银行危机的时候,大金融家约翰·皮尔庞特·摩根[J.P. Morgan]把一群富有的金融家请到他家,把他们锁在自己书房不准离去,直到他们统统掏钱设立了一个基金来稳定银行。布热津斯基说:“有钱阶级今何在?那些赚了成亿美元的人为什么不做点什么?”
布热津斯基说,如果他们不能自觉自愿地做点什么,“阶级之间的冲突将会增加,而如果人们失业了并真正受到了伤害,不瞒你说,甚至有可能发生暴动!”
欧洲有个叫做 LEAP/Europe的机构,它每月向自己的客户即政客、公职人员、工商界和投资人士发布保密的“全球欧洲预期报告”,几乎就在同时,它的2月份报告也 专门讨论了全球地缘政治混乱问题。该报告描绘的不是一幅美景。它讨论了在欧洲、美国和日本发生内战的可能性。它预测将出现一场“普遍恐慌”,导致冲突或半内战。
专家们有一些建议:“如果你的国家或地区是容易获得大量枪支的地方,如果可能的话,你最好还是…离开这个地方。”这些国家中唯一符合容易获取大批枪支这种描述的就是美国。LEAP/Europe的领导人弗兰克·比昂盖里[Franck Biancheri]指出,“美国民间有2亿支枪,社会暴力已经通过团伙活动得到展现。”撰写该报告的专家声称,已经有美国人正在向欧洲移民,因为欧洲是“人身危险很小的地方”。
如果说,布热津斯基希望美国出现另一个摩根来强迫“有钱”阶级觉醒,那么,LEAP/Europe的报告则把20国集团
这些分析并非来自左翼知识分子或激进社会运动。它们是严肃的分析人士公开表达的恐惧,这些人属于美国和欧洲现存体制的上层。只有这类人确实害怕的时候,语言上的禁忌才会被打破。打破禁忌的含义是要采取重大的紧急行动—类似于1907年摩根把金融家们锁到自己家里的举动。
在1907年倒是更容易些。
[伊曼纽尔·沃勒斯坦(Immanuel Wallerstein)版权所有,Agence Global负责发行。有关版权和授权,包括翻译和张贴到非商业网站事宜,请与rights@agenceglobal.com、1.336.686.9002或1.336.286.6606联系。在不改动本评论和展示版权所有条件下,允许下载、电子转发或通过电子邮件发送他人。如欲与作者联系,可发邮件给immanuel.wallerstein@yale.edu。
Thursday, March 5, 2009
大火暴央视高层贪腐:《财经》杂志遭封杀
这篇由报道由财经杂志两位记者署名,称央视新楼火灾后,检、警对责任的调查并不止于渎职侵权,还延展至央视新址工程的经济问题。
对火灾有直接责任的央视新址筹建办主任徐威被刑事拘留后,交待了诸多问题,涉及央视新址建设诸项工程招投标经济问题,其中,涉及了中央电视台副台长、央视新址法定代表人李晓明。
报道说,元宵夜的烟花不仅是火灾元凶,亦是经济问题调查的主要突破口。引发火灾的烟花是由央视内部人控制的大新恒太采购而来,徐威则直接收取回扣8万元。
而大新恒太最早是由央视为新址建设专门成立的北京央视国金工程管理公司出资500万成立,后被几位央视中层“私有化”。并承揽了央视新址建设所需的设备、软件、系统设计、系统集成等,成立三年以来,至少经营了与央视新址工程有关的七宗业务,标的总金额过亿。
坊间还有传言称,大新恒太的几位股东如赵军,赵序霞,可能是台长赵化勇的家属,不过目前未能查证,61岁的赵化勇本应在2008年正常退休。
央视新楼由在2001年,原国家计委批复,总投资76.66亿元;其中央视自有资金55.17亿元,银行贷款21.49亿元。此后,央视新址建设工期一延再延,项目资金也一再上涨。
至2004年8月,国家发改委的批文增加资金至78.91亿元。至今,央视新址工程的建设投资已达120余亿元,另有70多亿元新设备费用,总投资200亿。
报道称,国家审计署2009年专项计划中,将包括对中央电视台管理层的离任审计,并将审计央视新址工程。
今天上午,这篇名为《央视大火“烧出”工程腐败,审计署介入》的调查报道在财经杂志网站上挂了五个小时后,被中宣部下令删除。
同时,部分还未送到订户手中的杂志也被要求回收。零售市场还可以看到这期杂志,但有很多订户反映没收到这期杂志。不过,正在北京的两会代表已经收到了记者派送的这期杂志。
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央视新址大火余波未了
元宵夜的火灾,亦使公司化运作和新址建设中的“黑洞”端倪渐显
《财经》记者 欧阳洪亮 罗昌平
在中央电视台新台址(下称央视新址)大火发生半月之后,指向渎职侵权的调查已获新的突破,共约20名涉案嫌犯被北京市公安局采取措施。
2009年2月9日晚8时20分左右,农历元宵之夜,央视新址因其工作人员擅自雇用烟花公司违规燃放A类烟花,导致北配楼起火并持续近六个小时。事故导致一死七伤(参见《财经》2009年第4期“追问央视新址大火”)。
案发当夜22时许,央视副总工程师、新台址建设工程办公室(下称央视新址办)主任徐威,即被北京市公安局朝阳分局呼家楼派出所带走,监控在一家宾馆。相继被查的还有现场三名央视新址办工作人员,以及负责现场燃放礼花的湖南浏阳三湘烟花制造公司的八名员工。上述12人因涉嫌危险物品肇事罪,成为第一批被刑事拘留者。
2月19日,北京警方再刑拘五名涉案嫌犯。其中包括运输烟花爆竹的司机,以及帮助联系现场燃放公司的中间人等。
北京市警方、检方的调查并不止于渎职侵权,还延展至央视新址工程的经济问题。《财经》记者从多个渠道获知,承揽央视新址工程B标段(即北配楼)的北京城建集团一名项目负责人受到办案部门调查;中央电视台排名第五的副台长、央视新址园区法定代表人李晓明亦被调查。
《财经》记者调查确证,上述约20名被调查人员中,央视新址办原主任徐威、新址办综合业务处副处长邓炯慧、北京大新恒太传媒科技发展有限公司(下称大新恒太)董事长沙鹏,均已聘请辩护律师。沙鹏同时也有央视员工身份,围绕其名下公司在央视新址工程中的大宗业务,成为调查机关线索突破的关键所在。
徐威身后
据《财经》记者从接近办案的人士处获悉,徐威在被刑事拘留后,交待了诸多问题,已经超越简单的火灾渎职行为。据透露,徐威交待的问题涉及央视新址建设诸项工程招投标经济问题,“徐威之后还有谁,尚未可知”。
中央电视台现任台长赵化勇1999年2月主政央视以来,中央电视台经营业务向公司化、多元化方向发展。央视新址建设亦以公司化模式进行。2008年2月,赵化勇曾在中央电视台工作会议报告中称,2003年正式启动的新址建设工程,经过五年奋战,已经取得决定性胜利。
一年后的此番大火,则使公司化运作和新址建设中的“黑洞”端倪渐显。
根据现行体制,隶属国家广电总局的中央电视台,为副部级事业单位。其最高决策机构为央视党组,下设行政、采编、经营、技术四个委员会。在行政委员会之下,2001年3月新设立央视新址筹建办,由央视副台长李晓明任法定代表人,副总工程师、技术管理办公室主任徐威兼任主任,负责新址建设筹备。2005 年获得广电总局批文后,新址办正式成立,徐威开始全面负责央视新址建设。
对应于此,2003年,央视与北京市第一家专门从事建设项目全过程管理的企业——北京国金管理咨询有限公司,联合成立了北京央视国金工程管理有限公司(下称央视国金),对央视新址建设实行公司化运作,由徐威任法定代表人。徐威得以掌控央视200亿元新址建设资金的运作。
地处北京CBD核心区域的央视新址园区,于2005年4月28日开工,内含位于园区西南侧的CCTV主楼、西北侧的TVCC电视文化中心(即起火的北配楼,含文华东方酒店)、东北角的能源服务中心。早在2001年,原国家计委“[2001]2795”号文批复,央视新址工程项目获准立项,总投资 76.66亿元;其中央视自有资金55.17亿元,银行贷款21.49亿元。
此后,央视新址建设工期一延再延,项目资金也一再上涨。至2004年8月,国家发改委的批文增加资金至78.91亿元。至今,央视新址工程的建设投资已达120余亿元,另有70多亿元新设备费用。据悉,央视搬迁新址将全部使用新设备,原设备将留原址备用。
在担任新址办主任之前,徐威在央视任职近20年,一直为技术人员,曾多次参加央视的大型宣传节目和重大报道活动的技术方案制订和组织实施工作,自2000年12月起任技术管理办主任。
为何新址建设没有让基建处或者后勤部门主抓,而让一个技术负责人牵头?熟知内情的央视内部人员称,原因之一可能是徐威与央视副台长、央视新址园区法定代表人李晓明是大学同学,关系密切。
在周围人的印象中,徐威为人灵活而豪爽义气。其中学同学忆述:“每次同学聚会,都是徐威为大家埋单。”在同学眼里,徐威当年在班上并不起眼,但毕业后混最好。
《财经》记者获悉,2月9日央视大火当晚,李晓明即被办案部门传讯,旋即回家。第二天,李再度被传讯。接近李晓明的人表示,火灾后,副台长李晓明接受了办案部门调查,但并未被控制,2月24日,依旧见到李晓明在台里上班。
烟花牵出关联公司
元宵夜的烟花不仅是火灾元凶,亦是经济问题调查的主要突破口。
从2007年开始,央视连续三年安排在新址园区燃放烟花,其中2007年放了价值约30万元的烟花,2008年放了约50万元的烟花。此次引起大火的烟花燃放号称100万元,据央视内部人士透露,实际价值约35万元。
据《财经》记者从业内了解,烟花行业回扣高达30%。经销商获利丰厚。
接近案件的人士告诉《财经》记者,央视新址办多次燃放的烟花,均采购自浏阳三湘公司。初步调查,仅此批烟花,徐威即从三湘公司获得约8万元现金回扣。这成为徐威涉嫌经济问题的直接突破口。
进一步调查发现,央视新址办采购此批700余发烟花,全由大新恒太走账。火灾发生当晚,大新恒太董事长沙鹏被控制,接着被刑事拘留。
大新恒太业务主要为针对央视新址建设提供设备、软件、系统设计、系统集成等。大新恒太成立于2006年1月,500万元注册资本由央视国金全资注入,徐威为该公司第一任法定代表人。自此之后,大新恒太走上了一条由内部人控制的“私有化”之路。
2006年4月12日,央视国金将所持股权转让给影响传媒有限公司。影响传媒有限公司亦长期依托于央视承揽广告、咨询和培训业务。
不过,在成功中标央视的多哈亚运会转播设备采购项目、“专用采编四(SATA)”项目两笔业务后,影响传媒有限公司即从大新恒太全身退出,将股权转让给李鷷、赵军、沙鹏、沈旭、赵序霞五名自然人。
《财经》记者查证,李鷷又名李明桦,系沙鹏女友,现任央视国金财务部副经理、央视文化中心财务总监,为徐威下属;赵军、沙鹏亦为央视新址办员工,五人均与徐威关系亲密。
此后的2007年,大新恒太公司的股东变动频繁。当年7月9日,沈旭、赵序霞退出,黄丽芳进入;11月17日,北京亚细亚智业科技有限公司向大新恒太注资500万元,使后者注册资本增至1000万元。2007年11月23日至今,李鷷、黄丽芳、亚细亚公司退出。此后,该公司股权再未发生变化,1000万元注册资本由五名自然人分持,其中,罗凤娇330万元、赵军310万元、沙鹏180万元、李小冬150万元、赵序霞30万元。
上述人员中,赵军、赵序霞两人均为央视新址办员工,且在关键部门任职;其中,赵序霞系徐威在电视技术设备和软件工程方面多年合作的伙伴,在新址开始建设后,调入新址办。
根据公开资料显示,大新恒太成立三年以来,至少经营了与央视新址工程有关的七宗业务,标的总金额过亿元。如2007年,仅在央视新址工程,即承揽了弱电工程B标段及A标段服务楼弱电网络系统设备材料供应项目、基础应用系统集成和软件开发项目;2008年,又获得奥运节目光传输设备,以及新址工程中的 B标段酒店客房AV系统设备材料招标项目;等等。
微妙的“责任分担”
据《财经》记者了解,在徐威、沙鹏被刑拘后,央视有关方面即为两名当事人聘请了代理律师。
其中,徐威的律师在接手此案之后,曾就责任归属提出三点法律意见:一是此工程是否交付,若未交付,施工方是否承担责任;二是当夜燃放烟花,是徐威个人行为还是单位行为;三是烟花公司在A类烟花的运输与燃放过程中是否担责。
接近案件调查的人士告诉《财经》记者,目前如何鉴定这三方的责任,专家组仍存在争议。据初步核查结果,徐威的行为显然是单位行为。当晚烟花燃放时,央视安排了四台专业摄像机,“现场录制焰火中的央视新址,以备存档今后用于电视节目中”。
上述人士介绍,目前偏向于业主单位央视负主要责任,施工方、烟花公司负不同程度的次要责任。
湖南三湘烟花制造有限公司目前被刑拘的员工共九人,为所涉当事各方身陷最深者。2月17日上午,三湘烟花公司董事长戴剑虹在电话中告诉《财经》记者:“北京市公安局已派人来公司,正在调查此事。”
据新华社报道中引述的北京警方人士的话称,在新近五名被拘留人员中,包括运输烟花爆竹的司机、帮助司机躲避警方检查绕行小路的带路人,以及帮助联系现场燃放公司的中间人等。根据《北京市烟花爆竹安全管理规定》,北京对烟花爆竹实行专营制度,单位和个人必须从具有许可证的销售网点购买烟花爆竹,私自从外省市购买烟花爆竹被明令禁止。非但如此,北京市还规定,在该市行政区域内运输烟花爆竹,应当取得公安机关的运输许可,否则不得运输。
不过,针对三湘烟花公司的责任,各界说法不一。徐威的辩护律师认为,烟花公司应该承担运输和燃放A类烟花的申报责任;但反对的声音认为,三湘烟花公司受雇于央视新址办,后者才是直接的责任方。
随着施工方北京城建集团一名项目负责人被调查,此案又已引起对工程建设与实施的关注。
2月13日,央视召开高层会议,通报了火灾现场勘察的初步结果:央视新址北配楼着火后,燃烧主要集中在钛合金下面的保温层,具有表皮过火的特点。大楼保温层使用的材料是国家推荐使用的新型节能保温材料,这种材料燃烧后过火极快,因此瞬间从北配楼顶部蔓延到整个大楼,这次火灾是新中国成立以来建筑物过火燃烧最快的一例。
北京市消防局副局长、新闻发言人骆原告诉记者,火灾蔓延如此之快,与建筑材料、建筑物高度都有直接关系。
据北京市消防局提供的资料,起火的电视文化中心共30层,高159米,建筑面积103648平方米,主体结构为钢筋混凝土结构,外立面装修材料南北侧为玻璃幕墙,东西立面为钛锌板,外墙保温材料为挤塑板等。
由此看来,此次大火虽为“人祸”,但大楼防火不达标的保温材料“挤塑板”亦是“帮凶”。此次失火的央视新址B标段,其幕墙工程由中山盛兴股份公司承建。2005年11月21日下午,央视和中山盛兴关于北配楼幕墙工程签约仪式在北京建国门外长富宫饭店举行,央视副台长李晓明亲自出席签约仪式。
中山盛兴股份公司副总经理冯国敏对《财经》记者表示,有关幕墙防火材料是否达标的问题,相关部门已经在进行调查,目前不方便表态。《财经》记者获得的一份《防火审核意见书》显示,北京市消防局曾对央视新址共提出26条消防整改措施,其中八条涉及北配楼,如“地上14层采用扩大防烟前室代替避难层 ”,“5层、27层、28层厨房所用的燃气管道要从地下一层进线处穿越防火分区”等,均不符合防火规范。可见,施工方在消防方面的疏忽,以及元宵之夜未劝阻业主方燃放烟花,也存在责任。
善后之局
而今,火后的央视新址北配楼仍被封锁,一侧的三环路边,常有人驻足留影。其是拆是修,为人们所关注。
2月13日,央视召开高层会议内部通报称,专家组认为,北配楼过火后,由外墙往里损失逐渐减轻,越往外损失越严重。大楼朝南、朝北方向的窗户玻璃没有破碎,室内的物品基本完好。玻璃破碎的房间大都只在窗户附近有火烧情况。“初步判断,大楼主体结构基本没有问题,挂幕墙的金属网架整体也基本完好,钢筋混凝土结构没有受到损伤,承载屋顶的桁架没有发生明显变形,但个别部位需要修补。”
然而,央视此次会议所述的“专家组”,邀请的是建筑专家。他们初步形成的结论不具有法律效力,亦未获得建设、消防主管部门的认同。
据《财经》记者了解,建设部、北京市消防局的联合调查组,国家安监总局的独立专家局,仍在进行勘察工作,目前均未正式发表调查结论。一位建筑装饰专家对《财经》记者表示,他对央视内部通报持谨慎态度,认为其中某些细节难以置信,比如“大楼朝南、朝北方向的窗户玻璃没有破碎的,室内的物品基本完好”,是“基本不可能的”。
接近调查组的一位人士称,一名受央视邀请现场勘察的建筑专家口头表达了两条意见:长达六小时的高温燃烧导致结构强度大大下降,受力状况明显改变,安全隐患很大;作为全球瞩目的中国标志性建筑,加之处于华北地震带和北京中央商务区,不容许再次发生任何意外。
“烧了五六个小时,楼的主体结构也差不多了。”参与北配楼前期设计的建筑师吴朝辉说。
另一位主张拆除大楼的建筑专家告诉《财经》记者,如果不拆除,修补的资金远比拆除的少。但对未来的央视接任者来说,不拆除,可能意味要时刻应对一个“定时炸弹”。
大火和徐威被拘,亦使得央视电视文化中心面临着善后之局。
失火的央视电视文化中心(TVCC),由央视所属的中广影视卫星有限责任公司与中国国际电视总公司于2007年4月共同出资组建,是新址建设工程以及中央电视台媒体经营业务的重要组成部分。至失火时,电视文化中心已完成投资20多亿元;2009年年前,央视资产登记时,核定为30亿元。
电视文化中心核心产业为央视华汇时代剧院和文华东方酒店。文华东方酒店拥有241间豪华客房及高档配套设施,原计划酒店于2008年中开业,但一直拖延到2009年火灾被烧毁,依旧没有开业。大火过后,酒店开业将无限期后延。
央视华汇时代剧院在2008年完工开始承揽演出业务,作为开幕大戏的《陪我看电视》已经签约并进行广告宣传,原计划于2009年3月18日上演,演出票都已经售出。火灾后,必须临时终止演出更换场地,央视电视文化中心将面临系列合同纠纷。
2月13日,中央电视台台长赵化勇主持召开的央视高层会议决定,央视新址主体大楼的搬迁计划不变,仍在今年国庆节前后陆续进行。
央视内部人士告诉《财经》记者,61岁的赵化勇本应在2008年正常退休。火灾发生之后,赵化勇全力投入善后事宜,中央电视台日常工作由第一副台长张长明全权负责。
据悉,国家审计署2009年专项计划中,将包括对中央电视台管理层的离任审计,并延伸审计央视新址工程。
Monday, March 2, 2009
朋友还是对手
我还清晰记得当时住在新桥巷,对门的老头说解放前老家有一个地主,自称攒了足够的钱,可以坐吃山空。但当他攒的不是黄金,而是信用货币的时候,问题就发生了。随着生产水平提高,货币供应量也在增加,甚至货币供应量的增加远远超过了生产的增长,原来的钱不值钱。另一个方面看,父母亲从70年代开始,那么多年的积蓄最终贬值了很多,正是因为在信用货币体系下出现了财富分配不平等,更何况还有在共匪官僚体系下掠夺式的经济发展模式。
巴菲特在《IOUSA》的采访中提出:金本位固然好,可以实现没有通胀通缩以及经济周期,但信用货币体系是现代资本主义发展的“润滑剂”,金本位必然影响到商业发展,科斯托拉尼称温和通胀为“适度的温水浴”,所以要求现代社会回到金本位,就像在一个嫖娼合法的社会里要求一个腰缠万贯性欲旺盛的嫖客不再去妓院。索罗斯指出从底部逆转后出现的上升趋势会不断自我加强,直到崩溃——这一点与奥地利学派米塞斯、哈耶克的观点十分相似,不同点在于索罗斯利用这种起伏获利,而米、哈是纯粹的学术研究。尽管哈耶克的主张,如取消央行,完全放任自由等观点脱离了实际社会,但他的观点是深刻的,只不过他没有提出“务实”的措施,这一点索罗斯提出的 “开放社会”与之又相同。
经济和社会层面的政策需要学界不断探索,就目前金融危机后政府采取的措施而言,凯恩斯主义依旧大行其道(不管凯恩斯主义能如何有效解决萧条的问题,但我始终不认同“反对节俭”的观点),消灭了一部分富人,而另一部分人发财的游戏正在上演,这样的游戏还会不断重复。索罗斯和奥地利学派的观点,某种意义上可能只代表了人类向往美好社会的终极幻想。
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两会代表的任务就是握手、举手、拍手,简称三手代表。罗马元老院也经常出现这样的事情。
Sunday, March 1, 2009
瓜德罗普:理解世界危机的暗匙
纽约州宾汉顿大学,美国
Fernand Braudel Center, Binghamton University
http://fbc.binghamton.edu/commentr.htm
伊曼纽尔·沃勒斯坦
(路爱国译)
评论第252号
2009年3月1日
瓜德罗普:理解世界危机的暗匙
瓜德罗普是加勒比海上的一个小岛,规模相当于大伦敦地区或美国艾奥瓦州。其人口大约为40万人。世界媒体几乎从不提及它。1月20日以来,它成了一个持续性大罢工的地方,罢工竟然让10%的人口走上了大街,这肯定是一个世界纪录。罢工被称为Liyannaj Kont Profitasyon (LKP),从克里奥耳语[Creole]翻译过来就是“集体反对‘利润化’(或畸高的利润)”。
LKP是31个工会、政党和文化组织的集合体,它代表了几乎整个文职部门。领导来自UGTG,这是一个独立地方工会,在最近的工会选举(法国官方体制下叫做élections prud'hommales)中获得了多数票。
LKP向4类群体发布了一份126项要求的清单,即法国三级政府(中央政府、大区和省)加上雇主。大多数要求涉及经济问题。但正如负责法国海外领土的法国部长逸夫・杰格[Yves Jego]所说,这些经济要求的后面是一场“社会”危机。这是用客气的方式说,罢工不仅关乎面包和黄油。它还是一场意义深远的反殖民运动。正是这种组合,使这个世界不起眼的小地方正在发生的事情成了理解我们当前面临的世界危机的一把钥匙。
瓜德罗普或许在今天默默无闻,但它却是1493年哥伦布首次踏足此地以来资本主义世界经济的一个重要地标。17和18世纪,它成为世界制糖业主要中心之一,与海地一样,它也是法国财富的一个宝贵来源。当然,甘蔗种植园使用从非洲进口的奴隶劳动,而原住民人口已经被赶尽杀绝了。
1763年,在法国和英国就结束七年战争的巴黎条约进行谈判时,一个主要问题就是法属加拿大和瓜德罗普的命运。英国人在战争中从法国手中夺取了这两个地方,但他们同意可以只要其中之一,无论选中那个。在当时,两国都认为小小的瓜德罗普是一份厚奖,是世界财富的一个重要来源。相反,加拿大相形见绌,伏尔泰曾将其贬低为不过是"quelques arpents de neige"(几英亩积雪)。
正是由于瓜德罗普如此可贵,英国才决定保留加拿大。英属西印度群岛的甘蔗种植园主不希望有竞争。此外,英国政府还想在加拿大驻军上节省经费,他们认为,如果法国人不再涉足他们就能做到。
法国革命给法国的加勒比海领地带来了动荡,主要是在海地和瓜德罗普。这两个领土上都发生了奴隶起义。在这两个领土上,法国种植园主都惊恐万状,特别是法国1794年结束了奴隶制之后。种植园主转求英国来拯救他们。在这两个领土上,法国都赶走了英国人,彻底镇压了起义,并这个过程中恢复了奴隶制。但是,与海地不同,瓜德罗普仍保留为法国殖民地。一切照旧进行。
后来到了1848年,法国又发生了一场革命。又一次结束了奴隶制,其伟大的领导者是临时政府的一位部长维克托·舍尔歇[Victor Schoelcher]。就像1863年美国的林肯一样,舍尔歇通过法令废除了奴隶制,因为他知道他得不到立法机构的赞同票。但这一次,从法律上废除奴隶制没有遭到撤消,尽管舍尔歇曾任部长的临时政府为一个远为保守的政府所取代。
奴隶制在瓜德罗普(如同在别处一样)被取缔了,但随后在几乎一个世纪里经济中的变化极小。种植园仍然生产蔗糖,白人园主仍然获取利润,从前的奴隶仍然得到非常微薄的报酬。更糟的是,他们可怜的报酬对种植园主来说还是过于昂贵,于是他们部分地被亚洲进口的新劳工所取代。失业变成普遍现象,并一直持续到今天。
1945年之后,随着世界各地反殖民运动的发展,法国政府把瓜德罗普变成了一个海外省,大致与宗主国各省同等。但在经济上,他们比以前更依赖巴黎的施舍。制糖业枯竭了土地,旅游贸易变成了新的经济基础。瓜德罗普人生活在这样一种经济中,他们的报酬大大低于宗主国法国的标准,而生活成本却要高出许多,因为进出口为白人拥有的几个大型半垄断公司所控制。
这就是引发了双重爆炸的原因—反对 “利润化”和反对仍然被视为事实上的奴隶制。瓜德罗普人想要什么?他们清单上的首先第一项要求是给最低工资收入者加上领养老金的人员每月增加200欧元。鉴于罢工的能量,他们或许有可能得到这200欧元,尽管遭到了大雇主的拼命反对。这些雇主被要求在200欧元中出50欧元,但他们只肯出10欧元。法国政府可能会强迫雇主参与满足这项要求,尽管可能不涉及一长串其他要求。
但“社会”危机是怎么回事?追求尊严的反殖民运动一个历史方式就是要求正式独立。在瓜德罗普,民众运动一直没有提出这一要求。他们看到世界上以及首先自己周边独立国家的实际权力有限。海地的命运没有吸引力。但他们确实希望看到意义深远的社会转化--结束少数白人的社会和经济权力,建立实现平等化的具体形式。
在世界性经济灾难中把经济要求与“社会”要求结合起来,这就是在发起一场威力巨大的旋风。这种旋风是几个富国对几家银行实现几场国有化所完全阻止不了的。迄今,瓜德罗普(以及其他各地)在自己的抗议活动中一直相对平和。但旋风总有办法变得更加猛烈。
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每月两次发表的这些评论,旨在从长时段而不是当前头条新闻的角度,对当今世界变化做出反应。]